Is Donald Trump’s Secret Weapon for Winning the 2024 Election New Voters?
Former President Donald Trump may have a secret weapon to winning the 2024 election, poll numbers suggest. Despite his loss in the 2020 election to Joe Biden, Trump is still attracting new voters, as indicated by several polls. These new voters might play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.
Trump’s Growing Support Among New Voters
Recent polls have revealed that Trump is outperforming Biden in terms of attracting new voters who did not cast a ballot in the previous election. For instance, in a CNN survey, Trump’s margin over Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup was significantly boosted by voters who did not vote in 2020. These voters favored Trump by a substantial margin in key states such as Georgia and Michigan, both of which Biden won in the last election.
Details of Voter Preferences
In Georgia, registered voters preferred Trump 49 percent to Biden’s 44 percent, while those in Michigan backed Trump by 50 percent to Biden’s 40 percent. Additionally, almost a third of Trump’s 2024 support in battleground states is driven by voters who did not vote in 2020, which is significantly higher than the percentage of new voters supporting Biden. Moreover, an Emerson College poll found that nearly 8 percent of voters who did not participate in the 2020 election opted for Trump over Biden.
The Importance of New Voters
The numbers of new Trump voters may seem small, but they represent a significant share of potential support. It’s crucial for any campaign to target and engage with these voters, especially when the race remains close between the top two candidates. Political consultant Jay Townsend emphasized the importance of reaching out to those who did not vote in past elections, stating that both Trump and Biden need to focus on driving up voter turnout, particularly in swing states.
Trump’s Advantage Over Biden
Not only is Trump attracting more new voters, but he is also doing better than Biden in terms of retaining his 2020 supporters. The NYT survey conducted in key battleground states revealed that a larger percentage of Trump’s 2024 support comes from voters who supported him in 2020, compared to Biden’s 2024 support from previous voters. This trend is further supported by the CNN poll, which found that more Biden supporters from Georgia and Michigan were leaning towards Trump for the 2024 election.
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