ZTO Express delivered a strong Q4 2025 beat, posting EPS of $0.47 (vs. $0.44 consensus) and revenue of $2.07 billion (vs. $2.00 billion expected). Full-year adjusted net income reached RMB 9.5 billion. Shares surged approximately 8.60% following the announcement, driven by robust volume growth and a new $1.5 billion buyback program.
About ZTO Express
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., trading under ticker ZTO on the NYSE and 2057 on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK), is one of China’s largest and fastest-growing express delivery companies. Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Shanghai, ZTO operates a highly scalable asset-light network partner model, managing critical line-haul transportation and sorting operations while leveraging franchise partners for first- and last-mile delivery. The company serves China’s booming e-commerce ecosystem, with deep integrations across major platforms including Alibaba.
As of the earnings date, ZTO carried a market capitalization of approximately $13.99 billion and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.72. The return on equity stood at 14.33% and net margin at 18.61%. ZTO’s 52-week range was $16.34 to $25.52, and the stock was trading around $23.73 before the earnings-driven surge. The board declared a semi-annual cash dividend of US$0.39 per ADS, consistent with its commitment to return at least 50% of adjusted net income to shareholders starting in 2026.
Top Financial Highlights
- Q4 Total Revenue reached RMB 14,510.7 million (US$2.075 billion), up 12.3% year over year from RMB 12,919.7 million in Q4 2024
- Full Year 2025 Total Revenue reached RMB 49,098.7 million (US$7.021 billion), up 10.9% from RMB 44,280.7 million in 2024
- Q4 Net Income was RMB 2,693.2 million (US$385.1 million), up 10.1% from RMB 2,446.8 million in Q4 2024
- Full Year Net Income was RMB 9.081 billion, up 3% year over year, with EPS of RMB 11.38
- Q4 EPS (ADS) was $0.47, beating the consensus estimate of $0.44 by $0.03
- Full Year Adjusted Net Income reached RMB 9.5 billion (US$0.39 per ADS)
- Q4 Gross Profit was RMB 3,681.9 million (US$526.5 million), a decrease of 2.1% from RMB 3,759.7 million in Q4 2024
- Q4 Gross Margin fell to 25.4% from 29.1% in Q4 2024, reflecting cost pressures and volume incentive increases
- Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4,241.5 million (US$606.5 million), down 8.1% from RMB 4,615.3 million in Q4 2024
- Q4 Parcel Volume grew 9.2% year over year to 10.56 billion, outpacing the industry’s approximately 5% growth rate
- Full Year Parcel Volume grew 13.3% year over year to 38.5 billion parcels
- Q4 Operating Cash Flow was RMB 4.2 billion, with capital spending of RMB 1.8 billion
- Cash and Equivalents at end of Q4 2025 stood at $1.43 billion, up from $1.31 billion at the end of Q3 2025
- 2026 Parcel Volume Guidance projects 42.37 billion to 43.52 billion parcels, representing 10 to 13% year-over-year growth
Beat or Miss?
| Metric | Reported | Estimated | Difference / Analysis |
| Q4 EPS (ADS) | $0.47 | $0.44 | Beat by $0.03 (+6.8%) |
| Q4 Revenue | $2.07 billion | $2.00 billion (Zacks) / $1.99 billion | Beat by ~$70-80 million |
| Q4 Adjusted Net Income | RMB 2.7 billion | In line with expectations | Met guidance |
| Full Year Revenue | RMB 49.1 billion | N/A | 10.9% YoY growth |
| Full Year Adjusted Net Income | RMB 9.5 billion | N/A | 3.3% YoY growth |
| Q4 Gross Margin | 25.40% | N/A | Declined from 29.1% in Q4 2024 |
What Leadership Is Saying?
CEO Meisong Lai on strategy and volume growth: “Adjusted net income was 2.7 billion which was in line with expectations. Further, the daily average non-retail volume continued to trend up throughout the year and reached 9.8 million which increased over 38% compare to 4Q last year. Behind revenue diversification, our product and services capability are expanding beyond traditional express delivery in quality and scale bringing in positive contribution to overall revenue and margin.”
CFO Huiping Yan on financials and margins: “For the fourth quarter, ZTO’s core express ASP increased 2.9% driven by key accounts’ unit price increase offsetting negative impact from volume incentive hike elsewhere in the core business. Combined unit sorting and transportation costs decreased 4 cents thanks to sustained productivity gain initiatives. SG&A excluding SBC as a percentage of revenue remained stable at approximately 4.4% compared to 5.0% last year. Cash flow from operating activities was 4.2 billion, and capital spending was 1.8 billion.”
Historical Performance (YoY Comparison)
| Category | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Change (%) |
| Total Revenue | RMB 14,510.7M (US$2.075B) | RMB 12,919.7M | +12.3% |
| Net Income | RMB 2,693.2M (US$385.1M) | RMB 2,446.8M | 10.10% |
| Gross Profit | RMB 3,681.9M | RMB 3,759.7M | -2.1% |
| Gross Margin | 25.40% | 29.10% | -3.7 pts |
| Adjusted EBITDA | RMB 4,241.5M | RMB 4,615.3M | -8.1% |
| Total Operating Expenses | RMB 492.5M | RMB 306.5M | +60.7% |
| Parcel Volume | 10.56 billion | ~9.67 billion | +9.2% |
| Core Express ASP | +2.9% vs prior year | Baseline | Driven by KA mix improvement |
Competitor Comparison (Full Year 2025)
The following table compares ZTO Express with its key Chinese logistics and express delivery peers based on available full-year 2025 results:
| Company | FY 2025 Revenue | FY 2024 Revenue | YoY Change | FY 2025 Net Income | Notes |
| ZTO Express (NYSE: ZTO) | RMB 49.1B | RMB 44.3B | +10.9% | RMB 9.08B (+3%) | Market share up 0.8 pp in Q4; gross margin pressure |
| JD Logistics (HKEX: 2618) | RMB 217.1B | RMB 182.8B | +18.8% | RMB 6.65B (+7.2%) | Larger scale, lower net margin; B2B and supply chain focus |
| SF Holding / SF Express (SZ: 002352) | RMB ~293.7B (H1: RMB 146.9B) | RMB ~263.8B (H1: 134.4B) | ~+9.3% (H1) | ~RMB 11.5B (H1: RMB 5.74B +19.4%) | Premium B2B and time-sensitive leader; air fleet of 85+ aircraft |
| YTO Express (SSE: 600233) | RMB ~73.8B (TTM Sep 2025) | N/A | ~+10% (H1: +10.2%) | N/A | Tongda peer; net margin approx. 16%; lags ZTO profitability |
How the Market Reacted?
ZTO shares surged approximately 8.60% following the earnings release, reaching a price of $25.77 and adding an estimated $1.62 billion to the company’s market valuation. The reaction was notably stronger than ZTO’s historical post-earnings average move of just 0.27%, signaling that the combination of a revenue and EPS beat, a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program, and an elevated shareholder return target of no less than 50% of adjusted net income resonated strongly with investors.
On the Hong Kong exchange, ZTO-W shares (02057.HK) also rose sharply, with short-selling data showing the ratio at 60.58% of RMB 138.87 million in activity. Analyst sentiment remained mixed, with ratings spanning from Hold to Strong Buy, and a consensus price target of $22.36 from MarketBeat contributors at the time of reporting.
