Mattel reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.39, missing the consensus estimate of $0.54 by roughly 28%. Revenue came in at $1.77 billion, falling short of the $1.85 billion Wall Street expected. The company’s FY2026 EPS guidance of $1.18 to $1.30 dramatically undershot the $1.75 consensus, triggering a stock plunge of approximately 25% on February 11, 2026, with shares falling from $21.06 to around $15.41.
About Mattel
Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) is one of the world’s largest toy manufacturing and entertainment companies, headquartered in El Segundo, California. Founded in January 1945 by Harold Matson, Ruth Handler, and Elliot Handler, the company has grown into a global powerhouse with a presence in 35 countries and products sold in more than 150 nations. Mattel’s portfolio includes iconic brands such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, American Girl, UNO, Matchbox, and Mega, among others.
As of early March 2026, Mattel carries a market capitalization of approximately $4.80 billion and trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 12.63. The company does not currently pay a dividend. Mattel employs approximately 31,000 people worldwide, down about 9% year-over-year. For the full year 2025, the company generated $5.35 billion in revenue and $397.6 million in net income. The company is led by Chairman and CEO Ynon Kreiz, who has been guiding Mattel’s transformation from a traditional toy maker into an IP-driven play and family entertainment business.
Top Financial Highlights
- Q4 Net Sales reached $1,766 million, up 7% as reported and 5% in constant currency versus the prior year’s fourth quarter.
- Q4 Net Income was $106 million, a decrease of $35 million (roughly 25% decline year-over-year).
- Q4 Reported EPS came in at $0.34, down from $0.42 in the same quarter last year.
- Q4 Adjusted EPS was $0.39, up from $0.35 a year ago, primarily benefiting from share buybacks and discrete tax items.
- Q4 Gross Margin declined to 45.9%, a drop of 480 basis points, pressured by higher discounting, inflation, unfavorable FX, and tariff timing effects.
- Q4 Adjusted Operating Income was essentially flat at $160 million.
- Full Year Net Sales totaled $5,348 million, down 1% as reported and in constant currency.
- Full Year Net Income fell to $397.6 million, down from $541.8 million in 2024, a 27% decline.
- Full Year Adjusted EPS was $1.41, down from $1.62 in 2024.
- Full Year Operating Cash Flow was $593 million, down from $801 million.
- Full Year Free Cash Flow was $411 million, down from $598 million in the prior year.
- Cash on Hand at year-end was $1.24 billion after completing $600 million in share repurchases.
- Vehicles Gross Billings surged 20% as reported (+16% constant currency) in Q4, driven by Hot Wheels’ double-digit growth and its eighth consecutive record year.
- FY2026 Guidance: Net sales growth of 3% to 6% in constant currency, adjusted EPS of $1.18 to $1.30, and adjusted operating income of $550 to $600 million.
Beat or Miss?
Mattel’s Q4 2025 results missed Wall Street expectations on nearly every key metric. The gap between actual performance and forecasts was particularly pronounced for earnings per share and EBITDA.
| Metric | Reported | Estimated | Difference |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.39 | $0.54 | -27.8% miss |
| Revenue | $1.77B | $1.85B | -4.3% miss |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $234M | $317M | -26.1% miss |
| FY2026 EPS Guidance (midpoint) | $1.24 | $1.75 (consensus) | -29.6% below |
| Operating Margin | 9.10% | N/A | In line with prior year |
The revenue miss was attributed to weaker-than-expected December gross billings in the U.S. market, while international operations performed in line with expectations. The disappointing FY2026 guidance reflects approximately $110 million in strategic digital investments and $40 million in performance marketing spend that will temporarily weigh on earnings.
What Leadership Is Saying?
“We achieved strong topline growth in the fourth quarter and consumer demand was positive in every region for both the quarter and full year, but December gross billings in the U.S. ended up growing less than expected. Our international business was positive for the year and we gained market share in key categories globally. 2026 will be an important year for Mattel as we implement our new brand-centric strategy to grow our IP-driven play family entertainment business.” – Ynon Kreiz, Chairman and CEO
“Given trends in the US in December, we took steps to manage our own inventory, including an increase in promotional activity, which impacted our margins. Free cash flow generation was $411 million for the year. Cash at year-end was strong at $1.24 billion after completing $600 million in share repurchases. We are tracking ahead of our three-year $200 million savings target, and we are now projecting approximately $50 million of savings in 2026, bringing the total target of the program to $225 million.” – Paul Ruh, Chief Financial Officer
Mattel YoY Historical Performance
The table below compares Mattel’s Q4 2025 performance against Q4 2024, as well as the full-year comparison.
Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024
| Category | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Change (%) |
| Net Sales | $1,766M | $1,646M | +7.3% |
| Net Income | $106M | $141M | -24.80% |
| Reported EPS | $0.34 | $0.42 | -19.0% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.39 | $0.35 | +11.4% |
| Gross Margin | 45.90% | 50.70% | -480 bps |
| Adj. Operating Income | $160M | $161M | -0.6% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $234M | $249M | -6.00% |
Full Year 2025 vs Full Year 2024
| Category | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | Change (%) |
| Net Sales | $5,348M | $5,380M | -0.6% |
| Net Income | $397.6M | $541.8M | -26.6% |
| Reported EPS | $1.24 | $1.58 | -21.5% |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.41 | $1.62 | -13.0% |
| Gross Margin | 48.70% | 50.80% | -210 bps |
| Operating Income | $546M | $694M | -21.3% |
| Adj. Operating Income | $620M | $738M | -16.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $411M | $598M | -31.3% |
| Operating Cash Flow | $593M | $801M | -25.90% |
Competitor YoY Historical Performance
The toy industry saw divergent outcomes in Q4 2025, with Hasbro delivering a major beat while Mattel and Spin Master both struggled.
Q4 2025 Competitor Comparison
| Category | Mattel (MAT) | Hasbro (HAS) | Spin Master (TOY) |
| Q4 Revenue | $1.77B | $1.50B | $618M |
| Q4 Revenue YoY | 7.30% | +31.0% | -4.8% |
| Q4 Adj. EPS | $0.39 | $1.51 | N/A |
| Q4 EPS vs Estimate | -27.8% miss | +58.9% beat | N/A |
| Q4 Adj. Op. Income | $160M | $315M | $66.4M |
| Stock Reaction | -25% approx | +1.55% | N/A |
Full Year 2025 Competitor Comparison
| Category | Mattel (MAT) | Hasbro (HAS) | Spin Master (TOY) |
| FY Revenue | $5.35B | $4.70B | $2.11B |
| FY Revenue YoY | -0.6% | +14.0% | -6.6% |
| FY Net Income | $397.6M | Net loss (incl. impairment) | -$148.5M |
| FY Adj. EPS | $1.41 | $5.54 | N/A |
| FY Adj. Op. Income | $620M | $1,140M | N/A |
| FY Op. Cash Flow | $593M | $893M | N/A |
Hasbro’s outperformance was fueled by an extraordinary 45% revenue surge in its Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment, led by record Magic: The Gathering results. In contrast, Spin Master’s full-year net loss of $148.5 million was driven by a $229 million non-cash goodwill and intangible asset impairment. Mattel occupied the middle ground, with stable revenues but significant margin compression and a substantial earnings miss.
2026 Guidance
How the Market Reacted?
Mattel’s stock experienced one of its sharpest selloffs in recent memory following the Q4 2025 earnings release. Shares closed at $21.06 on February 10, 2026, and opened the next morning at approximately $15.08, reflecting a gap-down of roughly 28% in pre-market trading. By the close on February 11, the stock had settled around $15.41, a decline of approximately 25 to 27%.
The selloff was driven not just by the Q4 miss, but more critically by the FY2026 EPS guidance of $1.18 to $1.30, which came in nearly 30% below the Street’s $1.75 consensus, prompting analyst downgrades including from JPMorgan. As of March 10, 2026, Mattel shares trade at approximately $16.25, still well below pre-earnings levels, reflecting continued investor uncertainty around the company’s $110 million strategic investment program and the near-term margin pressure it entails.
