Quick Verdict
Bridger Aerospace (NASDAQ: BAER) posted Q2 2026 EPS of $(0.13) and revenue of $30.5 million, both missing Wall Street consensus of $(0.03) EPS and $37.0 million revenue. Shares plunged roughly 23-25% in after-hours and the following session, closing near $1.26 to $1.34 as investors reacted to the miss and shrinking cash balance.
In this article, we take a closer look at the Bridger Aerospace Q2 2026 Earnings and what the results mean for investors.
About Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is a Belgrade, Montana-based aerial firefighting company and one of the largest private operators of this kind in the United States, providing fire suppression and wildfire management services to federal and state agencies, including the U.S. Forest Service, as well as international customers. The company went public via a SPAC merger and operates a fleet centered on CL-415EAF “Super Scooper” amphibious aircraft and King Air 350 multi-mission surveillance planes. As of early August 2026, BAER traded around $1.26–$1.34 with a market capitalization near $102–115 million and roughly 55.9 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding.
The stock carries a negative trailing P/E given ongoing net losses, and the sole covered analyst (Canaccord Genuity) maintains a “Buy” rating with a $5 price target. Bridger holds an estimated 5.8% share of the global aerial firefighting market, making it the largest single player in a fragmented industry.
Top Financial Highlights
- Q2 2026 revenue was $30.5 million, down slightly from $30.75 million in Q2 2025.
- Excluding non-recurring return-to-service work, adjusted revenue rose 16% year-over-year to $29.7 million from $25.7 million.
- Net loss was $(0.5) million, versus net income of $0.3 million in Q2 2025.
- Loss per diluted share was $(0.13), compared with $(0.12) a year earlier, and missed consensus of $(0.03) by $0.10.
- Adjusted EBITDA came in at $8.1 million, down from $10.8 million in Q2 2025.
- Gross profit was $11.3 million, versus $12.1 million in the prior-year quarter.
- Cost of revenues rose to $19.2 million from $18.7 million, driven by higher aircraft depreciation, fuel, and workforce costs.
- SG&A expenses fell to $5.3 million from $6.5 million, mainly reflecting warrant fair-value changes.
- Interest expense increased to $6.6 million from $5.7 million.
- Cash and cash equivalents stood at $7.2 million as of June 30, 2026, sharply down from $31.4 million at year-end 2025.
- Net cash used in operating activities for H1 2026 was $36.8 million, versus $16.2 million used in H1 2025.
- Total liabilities grew to $289.8 million from $265.6 million at year-end 2025.
- In May, Bridger secured 160-day U.S. Forest Service task orders for four Super Scoopers worth at least $30 million in guaranteed standby revenue.
- In July, the company won a $58 million contract with the Texas A&M Forest Service for three King Air 360 aircraft.
- Full-year 2026 guidance was reiterated at $135 million to $145 million in revenue and $55 million to $60 million in Adjusted EBITDA.
Operational Highlights 2026
(Source: ir.bridgeraerospace.com)
Beat or Miss?
| Metric | Reported | Estimated/Expected | Difference/Analysis |
| Revenue | $30.49 million | $37.04 million (consensus) | Missed by ~$6.5 million, or ~17.7% |
| EPS (GAAP loss) | ($0.13) | $(0.03) consensus | Missed by $0.10 per share |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $8.1 million | Not explicitly disclosed by analysts | Down from $10.8 million a year ago |
| Net loss | $(0.5) million | N/A (income of $0.3M implied comp) | Swing from profit to loss YoY |
| FY2026 revenue guidance | $135M–$145M (reiterated) | ~$138.3 million consensus | In line with consensus |
What Leadership Is Saying
“Our second quarter results reflect expected performance. At the same time, we saw a meaningful increase in preparation from our agency partners, from the longest task orders we’ve received for our Super Scoopers, to the new task order for our dual-sensor King Air 350.” — Sam Davis, President and CEO, Bridger Aerospace
“Turning to our outlook, we are reiterating our full year 2026 guidance of $135 million-$145 million in revenue and $55 million-$60 million in Adjusted EBITDA.” — Anne Hayes, CFO, Bridger Aerospace
Historical Performance: Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025
| Category | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change (%) |
| Revenue | $30.5 million | $30.8 million | -1.00% |
| Net income (loss) | $(0.5) million | $0.3 million | Swing to loss |
| Operating expenses (cost of revenues) | $19.2 million | $18.7 million | 2.70% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $8.1 million | $10.8 million | -25.00% |
Historical Performance vs. Competitors
Direct financial comparisons are limited because Bridger’s closest aerial-firefighting competitors — Conair Group, Coulson Aviation, and Neptune Aviation Services — are privately held and do not disclose quarterly financials, so no like-for-like public earnings comparison table is available. Bridger nonetheless remains the largest publicly traded pure-play operator in a market estimated at $1.7 billion in 2026, holding roughly 5.8% share versus a combined 11.5% for the top five competitors together.
Financial data providers instead group BAER with unrelated industrial/security-services peers (e.g., ADT, Allegion, Brink’s) for statistical screening purposes, which are not meaningful operational comparators for an aerial firefighting business.
How the Market Reacted?
Shares of Bridger Aerospace fell sharply on the earnings miss, closing the August 6 regular session at $1.685 (down 5.34% on the day) before sinking a further 23% in after-hours trading to around $1.30. By the next session, the stock had dropped as much as 25.44% intraday to about $1.26, near the bottom of its 52-week range of $1.47 to $3.44.
Selling pressure was compounded by news that Blackstone-affiliated holders sold roughly 1.9 million BAER shares, cutting their reported stake by about 97%, reinforcing bearish sentiment despite management’s reiterated full-year guidance.
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