Rishi Sunak Faces Crucial Week as Rwanda Bill Navigates Parliament
Rishi Sunak faces one of the most challenging weeks of his premiership as his proposed legislation to send asylum seekers to Rwanda is slated for its second reading in the House of Commons. This week, the Prime Minister is grappling to maintain unity among various Tory factions over the contentious plans. The upcoming discussions in the Chamber will determine the fate of the bill, shedding light on the potential scenarios that could unfold as it is presented to MPs.
Tories Vote it Down
The prospect of the bill being voted down presents a formidable challenge for Rishi Sunak, as multiple right-wing caucuses within the Conservative party are deliberating whether to oppose the legislation. Tensions are palpable among these factions, with some expressing dissatisfaction with the bill’s treatment of human rights laws. A defeat of the bill would not only undermine the Prime Minister but also jeopardize his flagship small boats plan, potentially paving the way for a leadership challenge or calling a snap election.
Likelihood rating: 1/5
Tories Abstain but it is Defeated
Another probable outcome is the bill being defeated due to inadvertent abstentions by Conservative MPs, given the opposition from the main opposition parties. The resultant effect on Rishi Sunak’s leadership would be similar to an outright vote against the bill, painting the Prime Minister as ineffectual in shepherding legislation through the Commons and possibly triggering a leadership challenge or a snap election.
Likelihood rating: 2/5
Tories Support Bill to Amend
Amidst the saber-rattling from various Tory groups, a more plausible scenario is Tory MPs reluctantly voting in favor of the bill to allow for amendments, affording Rishi Sunak more time to convince his party of the legislation’s merits. Additionally, Downing Street has signaled openness to amending the bill in response to MPs’ concerns, ensuring further deliberation before crucial votes.
Likelihood rating: 4/5
House of Lords Amends
If the bill successfully navigates the Commons, Rishi Sunak faces the daunting task of securing its passage through the House of Lords, where peers possess significant independent discretion. The contentious nature of the Rwanda bill could lead to substantial amendments or prolonged deliberations in the Upper Chamber, adding to the pressure on the Prime Minister as the spring deadline approaches.
Likelihood rating: 3/5
