Westminster Conservative Infighting: A Closer Look at Rishi Sunak’s Political Authority

Westminster is currently embroiled in an intense bout of Conservative infighting, reminiscent of the height of Brexit. However, this time, the issue at hand does not revolve around the fundamental constitutional status of the UK and its economic future; instead, it’s the intricate details of asylum policy. The focal point of the conflict lies in the interpretation of how to apply human rights laws in theoretical future cases of migrants facing deportation. The concern is whether one group of Tory lawyers or another is correct in their interpretation. At the core of this issue lies Rishi Sunak’s political authority, making it a matter of great significance for the Prime Minister and the future of the country.

The Crucial Stakes for Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak’s ability to win over nearly all his own MPs to his migration policy will determine the trajectory of his political standing. If he successfully garners support for his plans, he will continue to lead the country, albeit trailing Labour, and facing the risk of defeat at the next election. Nevertheless, he will still hold the power to pass legislation and shape the country’s direction. However, failure to gain support for his migration policy will inevitably strip him of his political authority. This would thrust him into a position similar to that of Theresa May, who, in her final year in office, struggled to wield any meaningful power.

The High Stakes

If the Prime Minister fails to attain his party’s backing for his migration plans, drastic consequences loom. While a snap general election or a Tory leadership contest seem improbable, Mr. Sunak’s political authority will be at its nadir. At best, he will face a final year in office comparable to Theresa May’s, when she fought gamely against her inevitable demise but could not wield power in any meaningful way.

Varied Skepticism

Within the Conservative party, there are varied reasons for reservations about the bill being voted on. Some act from genuine principle, fearing that only the toughest measures can restore Britain’s sovereign control over its borders. On the other hand, some are simply lashing out, driven by disillusionment with a leader who has failed to improve their party’s polling position over the past year. They are anxious to protect their right flank from the threat of Reform UK.

The Ominous Future

Amidst the current turmoil, it is essential to consider how those with reservations about the bill will cope with the looming prospect of an opposition defeat. If the Tories cannot come together and solidify their stance, an inevitable election defeat awaits them. The anger and powerlessness they feel now will pale in comparison to the sting of opposition in the face of defeat.